Scottish independence “unlikely” says expert on Quebec’s Independence bids


SCOTTISH independence is an “unlikely” prospect – according to a an expert on Quebec’s two independence referendums.

Professor Andrew Lecours – of the University of Ottawa – said the failed movement for Quebec’s independence is a good model for the current situation in Scotland.

The expert said that independence is now unlikely, and has told nationalists that they should not rely on demographics to secure a Yes vote in the future.

Speaking in Edinburgh – one year on from the failed independence bid – Prof Lecours drew parallels between the Scottish vote and Quebec’s referendum 20 years ago.

The referendum last year was a close race
The referendum last year was a close race


In 1995 – 15 years after a previous No vote for independence – a second referendum for Quebec’s independence was organised.

Once again, Quebec voted to stay in Canada by 50.5% to 49.5%.

Pro Lecours said: “Quebec independence is very unlikely now. Support for it is stagnant though attachment to Canada is continually decreasing, a minimal number of Quebeckers feel Canadian.

“I see Scotland in the very same place as Quebec – independence is unlikely.

“People feel a fairly weak attachment to the UK, but support for independence becomes stagnant.”

He also spoke of the “dying federalist thesis” – as it is known in Canada – which claims that because older voters said No, if nationalists wait for them to die they could win the next vote.

Prof Lecour said: “The thesis doesn’t work because as people get older they tend to favour the status quo.”