The last international break before World Cup is over. That means that, with the exception of a few pre-tournament friendlies, it’s all about Qatar. After everyone has played around 27 club games over the next nine weeks, it’s all off to Qatar.
1) Brazil
They are always up there, aren’t they? They’ve been a bit underwhelming in the World Cup for several decades. They have not made it past the quarter-finals since Ronaldo’s Redemption in 2002 and considering what happened on that occasion, would prefer they hadn’t. At this point rooting for Brazil seems a little bit like a gamble, as if you were on casino NetBet.
They are still the only non-Europeans who have won since Diego Maradona brought Argentina to glory in 1986. And right now, they look like the most likely to end the European dominance. They have won three games this year, one 4-0, two 5-1, and one 3-0. They have also beaten teams that are not jokes. Chile, Paraguay, and South Korea are just a few of the countries that Tite has taken to heart.
2) France
Legendarily absurd holders and possessors of strength in depth. The draw also offers the possibility of a last-16 clash against Mexico. This is basically a bye into the quarter-finals according to the unbreakable, if not inexplicable World Cup Law that stipulates that Mexico must always be out in the last 16.
France is second favourites, and their second XI would rank sixth. Their third XI would be dark horses.
Didier Deschamps’ team qualified for Qatar in a comfortable, if not entirely convincing, fashion. They drew home and away with Ukraine while also failing to beat Bosnia home.
We like the French chances in major tournaments as they are, but they can also be… a little French. They tend to crush everyone (see Russia 2018) or succumb to infighting and squabbles (see Euro 2020 et all). It is usually impossible to predict which one you will get.
If the Nations League is any indication (and it most likely isn’t), then it will be the latter. They were not England-level bad but narrowly avoided relegation by only taking one point from four games against Croatian and Danish.
3) Argentina
It’s Messi’s Last Chance at the Big Dance and it may just be his best chance. Argentina has a formidable team that combines youth and experience, and they have not lost a single game since the 2019 Copa America.
They won the 2021 edition, ending Messi’s long wait for an international honor. After a World Cup qualifying campaign that was unbeaten, they appear to be well positioned to add global glory to their continental success. However, they will need to improve on a somewhat recent World Cup record.
Argentina has reached the quarter-finals twice, finishing second once and winning it twice in the span of four tournaments between 1978 and 1990. They have lost only one match, that was against Germany in Brazil, who narrowly won the final after extra time.
Their recent form suggests that something very special could happen. They gave Italy a 3-0 victory in Finalissima, and they have won four of their last four games with a combined score of 14-0.
4) England
England’s position in betting is always and inevitably too low with British bookmakers. It owes much more to the huge liabilities they have accumulated than an objective rating of their chances. They are currently in the middle of a terrible run of form.
They didn’t win any games and were eliminated from the Nations League top-tier division. However, their recent tournament form merits our respect.
They were able to qualify for the World Cup once more quickly, which is not the case with all top European sides. They are also the only team that reached the last four of the 2018 World Cup as well as Euro 2020. This was their first major final since 1966, before falling to Italy on penalties.
They have had success with draws opening up for their team, and could do it again in Qatar. They could win a group that includes Iran, the USA, and Wales, which is a greater ‘if’ than one might think. Then they could face Qatar, Ecuador, or Senegal in the last 16 – a match likely to be a rematch. It’s then a matter of hoping that this tournament is not one where potential quarter-final opponent France is sloppy for some reason. Southgate is back in the semi-finals and all doubters and haters will be in the mud.
Technically, it’s possible.
5) Spain
It feels a bit old-fashioned to consider Spain a serious contender these days. They are a team that has risen to incredible prominence and was widely accepted as the best in the world. Then they suddenly kind of vanished, but without ever having any shortage of great players.
They’ve been very poor in majors since their absurd glory days when they won three consecutive tournaments (two Euros and a World Cup) between 2008 and 2012. It’s a case of “What have you done lately?” but the fact is that they’ve been eliminated in the group stage and the last 16 of their last two World Cups, since ending their long wait for a global title in South Africa. With a run to the final four, the Euros suggested a return to the top table. However, penalties were taken by eventual champions Italy.
The run was strange, however, with a few staid draws in the group stage before Slovakia gave a complete humping, and then Croatia knocked out 5-3 after extra time in a ridiculous game. They needed penalties to get past Switzerland.
6) Germany
They were a team that was in decline at the Euros 18 months ago. England beat them comfortably in a knockout match after they had already lost at home to North Macedonia’s giant-bothering scamps in a World Cup qualifier.
They seemed to have put all that confusion and unpleasantness behind them, crushing all-comers at Qatar’s remaining qualifiers. However, they then had a confused Nations League campaign in which thrashed eventual group winners and European champions Italy, but lost at home against Hungary and, most importantly, failed to defeat Gareth Southgate’s terrible England side.
Hansi Flick has in general created a compelling team that includes enough of the older guard to keep things reasonable but also has successfully incorporated a variety of exciting young talents, such as Jamal Musiala, former England Under-21 star.
This team is charged with halting a decline for a team that has such a strong record in major tournaments. They have been out of the group stage for the last two majors and the last four in a row for six majors between 2006-2016.
7) Netherlands
The semi-finalists from 2010 and the finalists from 2014 failed to qualify for Russia. However, they made it right by beating Turkey and Norway in a competitive qualifying team.
They have not lost a single game since last summer’s Euros 2-0 defeat to the Czechs.
Louis van Gaal’s team won five of six games and advanced to the finals. This included a win on the first matchday against Belgium, which saw them beat by 4-1.
Their tournament record, outside of the Nations League, is terrible. They also missed out on the 2018 World Cup and did not qualify for Euro 2016. They looked good at last summer’s Euros. However, they were unable to qualify for Euro 2016 after a sluggish group stage that saw them win three times before being knocked out by one lucky third-place team.
8) Portugal
Portugal’s victory in Euro 2016 remains one of the most prestigious smash-and-grab tournament victories. They won an event after finishing in third place in their group. In which they beat Wales 2-0 in the semi-finals, it was the first time that Portugal had ever won a game in 90 minutes.
Bookmakers don’t take chances with Portugal prices because of their ability to make a fortune in the most unlikely situations.
They are now in a reasonable form, having reached the Nations League finals within minutes before being beaten by Spain and Alvaro Morata.
They also have the right World Cup group to suit them. With South Korea, Ghana, and Uruguay in the pool, it looks like the kind of pool where you can chat your way up to the top with just one win and a few ugly draws. Brazil will likely be waiting for the team that takes second place in the Group of Draws.
9) Belgium
Are they really the last chance for the Golden Generation to win a major tournament? This squad is past its best, but they will have plenty of experience in Qatar.
Belgium’s squad could include six players with more than 100 caps – Hazard, Hazard, Hazard, Mertens, and Lukaku – as well as a few novices who have only made 90-something international appearances in Courtois or De Bruyne.
Although a few quarter-finals and one semifinal isn’t enough to make up for the incredible talent Belgium has produced over the past decade, they have a difficult task in Qatar.
Their group is not the worst. Canada and Morocco are unlikely to pose a serious threat. We are most looking forward to their clash against Croatia on the group stage. It’s possible that there will be 10 players with more than 100 caps on the pitch (Modric Perisic, Vida). Courtois could also play in three of Belgium’s four games.
However, the last 16 look problematic. It is almost certain that it will be Spain or Germany.
10) Denmark
The most fascinating team, in many ways. One that seems almost simplistically to have been made into something much greater by the shared experience of Christian Eriksen’s collapse and near-death pitching in their first game of the Euros.
A tightly knit Danish team managed to overcome the loss of their best player and march through to the semi-finals against England. They were, let’s just be honest, very unfortunate to lose in extra time to England. The winning goal was scored by a Harry Kane rebound from the softest of penalties.
They’ve won nine of the 10 World Cup qualifiers and have beaten France at home and abroad in the Nations League.
This is doubly important because they will be facing France in Qatar again in Group D. A section that also includes a nonvintage Australia side as well as Tunisia. Argentina and Mexico seem to be the most likely last-16 opponents.
